The German economy is hardly prepared for geopolitical tension cases. This thesis runs through the contribution by Andreas Ebert, deputy chairman of the CEO of the security association ASW Northern Germany and manager at Volkswagen. Building on the book “If Russia wins” by Prof. Dr. Carlo Masala is developing a scenario that outlines possible developments in the event of escalating conflicts-every day, step by step, up to worst-case courses.
His approach: Companies should not wait passively for political decisions, but actively deal with the question of what role they can play as part of a total state defense.
Masala’s warning: Germany is unprepared
Already on the security day of the Allianz for Security in Northern Germany in December 2024, Carlo Masala had warned: Germany entered a phase of so -called polycrises. These are characterized by the fact that several, mutually reinforcing crises appear in parallel – block formation of the world of states, climate change, fragile supply chains, the end of globalization.
Masala’s core message: Germany and its economy are insufficiently prepared for this. The paradigm of “change through trade” failed, economic dependencies on third countries dangerous. He called for a consistent rethink – towards geopolitical thinking in the management days, more crisis provision and to strengthen classic work protection in addition to cybersecurity.
The focus: questions and fields of action
Ebert picks up Masala’s theses and transfers it to the economy. His scenario shows how quickly everyday business processes can collapse in the event of tension. Every day of development is associated with questions for companies – for example:
- How do we ensure our supply chains when international transports are blocked?
- What role does the work protection play when critical systems become an attack goal?
- Are we prepared for emergency laws that immediately use in an emergency?
- What resources can we contribute to the overall defense?
These questions should not be asked in crisis mode, but should now serve as a guide for corporate security.
Total defense as a new cluster of corporate security
Dr. Jürgen Harrer defined four clusters in 2024 with his “Portfolio model for Corporate Security”: Regulatory Security, Asset Protection, Business Unit Support and Enterprise Support. Ebert advocates an extension by a fifth cluster: Contribution to overall defense.
This makes it clear that corporate security no longer only means protection of employees, systems and data, but also an active role in the context of the overall state resilience. This includes coordination with authorities, integration into emergency plans and the ability to maintain critical processes in the event of a crisis.
Scenarios as orientation aid
The scenario designed by Ebert is deliberately fictional. But this is precisely this: Companies are confronted with possible developments that have so far hardly been part of their risk management. The method forces to think through worst-case scenarios and derive measures.
This makes it clear that credible deterrence and effective defense can only work if the state and business are prepared together. Total defense is not only military, but an interplay of political control, social resilience and entrepreneurial responsibility.
Conclusion: From reacting to think in advance
Eberts analysis makes it clear: German companies have to expand their understanding of security. Cyber security remains central, but without physical security, emergency planning and the involvement of geopolitical risks, corporate security remains incomplete.
The message is clear: only when companies think through the tension and take scenarios seriously can they become the backbone of a total state resilience. Overall defense does not begin in the Ministry of Defense – it also begins in the company.
The entire fictional scenario can be downloaded here.